Uncertain World
Random insights from my world!
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Drunken Bored Post
1, Burma/Myanmar and revolutions.
Dealing with brutal regimes is not a simple task. There are two basic approaches engagement or isolation.
Engagement is where you try and persuade a government to change its way by increasing contact and trade in the hope that they will see the benefits of change.
Isolation is where you punish the naughty rulers and send them to the back of the class with a dunces hat on.
On a whole engagement is the best policy but this is a big generalization. Trade with countries tend to make the populous richer and therefore more educated and aware of the outside world. At a point the populous will realize that the way they are being treated is unacceptable and demand change. (interestingly this seems to occur when the GDP per person gets to about $4,000-$10,000.)
Isolation is where you apply punitive trade, diplomatic and even military restrictions on a country. Either in a hope of weakening the government to the point that the populous can revolt, or can be overthrow by intervention or that they are unable to spread trouble outside their borders.
Which to chose and when?
Engagement should always be the first approach, but it has many pitfalls. First you may be seen to be appeasing or even encouraging a despicable regime. Secondly trade with undemocratic countries is inevitably corrupt and so benefits the rulers and those who support them disproportionately to the populous thus strengthening their position. It can isolate those in the country like pro-democracy or human rights campaigners and might even turn them against the outside world.
However there does come a point when the actions of a regime are so despicable that disengagement is inevitable. When acts of genocide or aggression are committed for example it becomes untenable to even maintain diplomatic relations.
Isolation is a very dangerous game because it is a game of attrition that like war cost human lives. Sanctions allow for the dictators to invoke a sense of nationalism that your either with us or against us that usually breeds justification for further atrocities.
So should you invade a country under the banner of liberal intervention? Generally in my opinion the answer should be yes and fast. I will expalin why I think so in my next post!
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Train vs Plane
"the median sector length in the short-haul market is around 500 nautical miles"
Modern high speed train 186mph. Journeys of 3 hours or less trains are faster than planes.
So 3x 186 = 558 miles which is 485 nautical miles.
This is conclusive "proof" is any where needed that Europe has a huge market for rail transport if we properly invest in high speed rail lines!
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Second Life
http://www.secondlife.com/join/?u=201b50604aa84dd99c2d3d735ffbedf0
http://www.secondlife.com/events/index.php?date=1159340400&u=201b50604aa84dd99c2d3d735ffbedf0
Sunday, January 14, 2007
N73 Must Know!
The reason I love it so much is the software you can load on it. Nearly all the information I know about this phone has been from other peoples web sites so Google for How To's. I though I would just summarize.
1, Must have software for me is yahoo Go mobile 1.0. Its great it backs up you contacts, your photos and lets you get yahoo mail and messenger on you phone. Don't bother with yahoo go 2.0 beta, at the moment its a pile of crap.
2, Must have software is Google maps mobile! Basically poor mans GPS, if you have half a brain you don't need GPS you can follow you journey by moving the toggle button.
3, MSN messenger! You have to get this by downloading it from a Chinese web site... definitely worth if you are going to be away form a computer for a while but what to chat.
4, Gmail for symbian, I don't use my Gmail account much but its useful to have this anyway.
5, Mobizine software that lets you download the BBC web site headers. Bit like a proprietary RSS feeder.
6, Open source sodoku! Really addictive game for free on you mobile!
7, Open source tetris (jamtris)! Again a really addictive game on your mobile for free!
8, Chiltern Nomad, real time train time tracker for the chiltern line in London. Really good but only of use if you use the chiltern line regularly.
9, Ft news reader! IF you love the FT and have a subscription a definite!!!
10, Podcasting, If you have a no limit data subscription download nokia podcasting catcher and get all your podcasts live! Or use iTunes agent and load them on your phone using the mass storage device option!
Hope this is useful.
Cheer
Monday, October 02, 2006
The World
What should we make of this situation? & "Who's side should we be on?"
This is a symptom of the chronic health of the Russian state. Russia is as most primary children can tell you a vast country spanning many peoples and environments. The country was forged as a response to 18-19 century imperialism. It was then left to simmer in the pressure cooker of the the USSR. Few Russians yet alone westerners know where Russia truly is. Its borders so blurred by imperial annexations that it is a fair question to ask why is Georgia an independent state when chechnya is not? Why is Tuva a autonomous region and Estonia an autonomous country? And if Chechens, Georgians, Estonian's or Tuvan's are not Russian why would Russian's want them part of Russia?
The answer is impotency! Russia is and always has been a great country, but unlike in the western world we have had to face up to the crimes and horrors that were committed in the search of "greatness". In Briton's case colonialism, slavery and genocide. But while Russia has tried it has not fully reconciled itself to the horrors committed by imperialist Russia, Stalinist Russia or indeed in the name of communism. Both Czars and communists needed vast armies of people to achieve their searches.
So Russia has always needed these satellite oblasts, regions, countries to provide the fodder for its machinery, and quite literary would be impotent without it.
But is Russia now a democracy far removed from its Soviet and imperialist pass?
First lets get one thing clear, Russia is not a democracy. Putin has undermined the media, imprisoned opponents and appointed fellow KGB colleagues to all parts of the Russian state apparatus. Russia is in a bad state at the moment. But you may well ask is it not in a less worse state than when Putin took over? Yes is answer but this is mainly due to ongoing adjustment to the new political/economic stituation and the high commodities price than any of Putins reforms.
Putin is a nationalist whose only priority is keeping the Russian federation together. He doesn't understand why Georgia is an independent state! He thinks that it is just as much a part of Russia as Tuva is. Russia still has a large army in Georgia and undoubtedly has a large intelligence network operating there.
This is when its embarrassing to be European, we are the organization that could help the area by replacing Russian "peacekeeper" with EU or OSCE monitors. But it will be America that Georgians will go to for help. They know that despite the Iraq post war disaster they are the only ones who can guarantee Georgias indepedance.
What should we do to help our European brothers?
1, Support Ukrains and Georgia NATO and EU ambitions.
2, Call for the with drawl of Russian forces from Transdiestia, South Ossectia and Abkahasia.
3, Push for democratic reforms in Belorus, Armenia and Azerbaijan with the eventual hope they will join both NATO and the EU.
4, Support Yobloko, Gary Kasparovs Free choice 2008 campaign and George soros open initiatives in Russia.
5, Look at the work of Boris Beresnefski. Although I cannot be sure if he is a true democrat or egotist with a vendetta!
Please let me know your thoughts!
Thursday, January 05, 2006
Train ride
I was on the train down to
Monday morning the harsh reality that my life is shit hits hard when I have to calculate what thickness of steel should be used to make a sewage pipe for Conel Gadafi’s evil turds. Pondering this onerous task my mind slips away back to that train journey. Kicking myself for not asking for her telephone number. I sit up look at myself in the reflection of my VDU and decide I must talk to her again. I assume the mindset of Kalahari Bushman tracking down his rare and precious prey. My paw print in the sand was that she was a member of the Swedish Show jumping team. I don’t know a lot about show jumping but a took a calculated guess that there can’t be that many Swedish show jumpers in
“Hello, B.S.F. how can I help you?” answers a well bred young filly.
“Err yes I’m err enquiring into err Swedish show jumpers training in
“Let me have a look on the computer for you sir.”
I hear the faint tapping of digits on keyboard as she efficiently deals with my request.
“Sorry sir we have no Swedish jumpers on our database.”
“Oh” I reply pathetically as I realise my chase over.
“But we have the number of the Swedish federation sir. You might want to give them a try?”
I take down the number diligently so as not to make any errors. I thank the young girl for her help and impatiently hang up. I studiously dial the number into my office phone. It starts to ring, again I’m hit with panic as before but this time its not what to say its how to say it in Swedish!!! The only phase I know in Swedish is “ja elskerdi” meaning I love you, not particularly helpful in this situation. An automated switch board answers in Swedish. I listen intensely, as if to translate the Swedish language in my head using “ja elskerdi” as the Rosseta stone. Suddenly seemingly mid sentence a voice interrupts “For English please press 1 now”. Beep goes my phone as I tap the number one key and again the phone rings.
“Hello Swedish Show Jumping Federation, how may I help you?” Enquires an undoubtedly attractive Scandinavian woman.
“Yes, I’m after the name of one of yours female national team riders please. She based in
“Okay, can I ask who you are first?” She asks politely.
“Err Sorry I’m a journalist in
“Her name is **** ****” and gives out her mobile phone number to me. I thank her for her help and hang up.
I sit back starring in amazement down at the little scrap of paper in front of me. Its eleven o’clock time for a cigarette break. I walk down to the factory floor and light a cigarette. I take long draws on the cigarette pondering on how weird a world we live in, it takes less than a couple of hours to find the mobile phone number of a complete stranger.